Archive for January, 2009

Netflix and LG Electronics link up for ‘broadband HDTVs’: but will a walled-garden approach succeed?

HDTV sets made by LG Electronics are to become the latest device to be linked to the Netflix Watch Instantly service (see here for our previous post on the Netflix/Xbox360 tie-up).

What should we make of this?

In fact, LG is not the first TV set manufacturer to have come up with the idea of broadband-enabling its receivers to receive Internet content, so obviating the need for a separate device such as a games console or set-top box. Sony announced a module called the Bravia Internet Video Link at CES in 2007 for streamed video, and both Samsung and Sharp showed Ethernet-enabled receivers at CES a year later.

There are clear advantages to playing back disintermediated OTT services seamlessly on a TV set. Linking a laptop playing back OTT video material to a TV set works, but it is clumsy, depends on having the right connectors, and requires the viewer to control the experience via a keyboard rather than a remote control.

Significantly, the LG deal represents the first time a TV set maker has tied such technologies to an Internet service backed by a substantial amount of relatively high-quality content (although early-release blockbuster films still elude Netflix). According to the press release, Netflix members pay “as little as $8.99 per month for unlimited instant streaming and unlimited DVDs from a catalogue of more than 100,000 DVD titles in more than 200 genres.”

Although LG will embed the Netflix streaming software in some of its TVs, it does not appear to have gone as far as also including an Internet browser. Thus, viewers will have to use the Netflix website to add movies and TV episodes to their individual ‘Instant Queues’ before these appear as options on the TV screen. This is therefore a classic ‘walled garden’ service - no content will be viewable that is not available to the Netflix user base.

There are pros and cons to such an approach : judging by the plaudits the Netflix Watch Instantly service has garnered so far, its progressive download model appears to work well, so there is an implied quality of service associated with it. On the other hand, buyers of LG’s ‘broadband HDTVs’ , who are likely to be familiar with what the OTT universe has to offer on a PC or laptop (Netflix is an online service, after all) may wonder why that same experience is not available on their TV.

The interesting question is whether or not it will be in the TV set manufacturers’ interests to move to a paradigm in which their broadband-enabled TVs will come with an Internet browser enabling their customers to access any video content they like. It is difficult for them to earn any ongoing revenue streams from such a model, whereas they can from a ‘closed’ deal like the LG/Netflix one - through bundling subscriptions with TV set purchases and/or agreeing subscription or pay-per-view revenue splits.

Of course, this should make a ‘proprietary’ TV set less expensive rather than more, since such revenues can subsidise the cost. Surprising, then, to see reports that the LG broadband HDTVs are going to cost an extra $200-300 - especially since, on Connected TV’s reckoning, the bill of materials for the upgrade should only add a few tens of dollars to the price.

IMS Research: Digital cable to be leading HDTV platform in China with 3.2m HD subs by end-2013

Some new research out from IMS Research reveals some rare data on the Chinese digital TV market, suggesting - among other things - that digital cable is set to become the country’s dominant digital TV platform by the end of 2009, and the focus for its HDTV rollout. (Sorry, no link seems to be available as yet - I’m relying on the press release I’ve been sent).

The study, entitled The Worldwide Market for High-Definition TV Equipment & Services, reveals that 46 million homes in twenty-five Chinese cities have now converted from analogue to digital cable, and that 69 million homes will be passed by digital cable by the end of the year. IMS Research is forecasting that 3.2 million of these digital cable households will have the capability of viewing HDTV programming by the end of 2013.

The author of the study, Shane Walker, notes that the main driver behind adoption of HD programming and HDTV products in the Asia-Pacific region has been Japan, with over 12 million HDTV households at the end of 2007 - 90% of the region’s HD households. Other territories, including China, have been held back by lack of availability of localised HD programming and the high cost of consumer equipment.

However, China’s State Administration for Radio, Film and Television (SARFT) has been strongly promoting the concept of a national digital cable network, striving to digitise all cable networks by 2015. According to the latest figures from SARFT, the transition is behind schedule by two years, but China is already one of the world’s largest digital cable markets, surpassing the USA (which had around 37m digital cable subs at the end of 2007, according to the NCTA).

US digital refusenik phenomenon unlikely to be repeated in the UK - but switchover still means lower ratings for the terrestrial nets

There’s a lot of buzz - most of it negative - coming out of the US at the moment about the country’s imminent analogue TV switchoff on February 17, 2009.

America is doing it the hard way - the whole country’s being switched off in one go - which has given rise to much talk about the potential for a large number of ‘digital refuseniks’.

Last fall, ABI Research reported that while 70% of viewers planned to attach a DTT set-top box to their TV set, and another 10% planned to switch to cable or satellite, 20% would just let their TV sets go dark.

The European DTT lobby group DigiTAG quotes US government estimates that approximately 15% of US households depend on the terrestrial platform for their primary television viewing, equivalent to around 17 million households - so that would suggest that over three million homes will refuse to make the switch.

And that in turn has led at least one commentator to predict that “February’s switch will have a devastating impact on the ratings of local TV stations and the broadcast networks.”

Could it happen in the UK?

Probably not - at least not because of people refusing to convert to digital. Digital UK’s quarterly tracker reports show that refuseniks - defined as those who say they will not convert any of their analogue TV sets to digital - declined from 3% to 1% between 2006 and 2008, although there were regional variations. And none of the early switchover experience in Borders, the first UK region to begin the switchover process, suggests anything like the US level of resistance.

However, as the UK progresses towards 100% digital TV penetration, the audience share of the main terrestrial networks is likely to continue falling anyway, as more households are introduced to multichannel choice and opt to expand their range of viewing outside the five terrestrial networks.

The Ofcom graph below illustrates what appears to be an inexorable trend. The yellow line (’Other’) represents the irresistible rise of the multichannel universe. Until switchover happens, that universe will continue to increase at the expense of the historical terrestrial channels.

Historical audience shares for main UK TV networks

French government one of few to have accepted ITU recommendation to allocate DTT spectrum to mobile broadband

This piece from the International Herald Tribune puts the French debate over mobile broadband’s potential cannibalisation of DTT frequencies in context.

It seems the French government is one of the few European administrations (the others being the Finnish, Swedish and Swiss authorities) to have agreed to an ITU recommendation in 2007 that its members should set aside some of their UHF frequencies for mobile broadband - this despite subsequent plans to allocate these to DTT.

The IHT article quotes a Nokia Siemens executive who points out that a wireless broadband network transmitting over UHF frequencies rather than the current 2.1GHz band used in Europe would require 75% fewer base stations to cover the same area.

The article also notes that while the European Commission is in favour of a harmonised mobile broadband frequency, the spectrum experts’ group that advises it, the Radio Spectrum Policy Group, is split. Moreover, the EU’s council of ministers has rejected a plan by Viviane Reding, the EU’s telecoms commissioner, to give the EC a role in co-ordinating spectrum at a pan-European level. (Reding is on record as advocating a co-ordinated frequency band for European mobile TV services).

This one will run and run….